The world has changed, globalization is over and we are now in a new era,
Groceries have become super expensive for a while and I cannot imagine how it will be in the future with all the tariffs,
As openness and cooperation is the trend of history, the world will not and should not retreat to mutual isolation and division,
Has the era of globalization ended? The answer is no,
From global stock markets plummeting to US consumers stocking up, these are the direct effects of the US' unilateral moves, and the outlook for the world economy is bleak due to the unpredictable effects brought by the US new tariff policy,
It is the shared responsibility of the international community to make economic globalization more open, inclusive, universally beneficial and balanced,
We won't rehash all the extreme statistics of last week, but many metrics are at panic levels associated with meaningful bottoms over the past 40 years,
We don't know if we get there, but if we do, history suggests it holds, at least initially,
The near-term future of equity prices depends heavily on Donald Trump's whims,
The combination of larger tariffs, greater policy uncertainty, declining business and consumer confidence, and messaging from the administration indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of its policies increase downside risk,
The question is will there be enough time for them to actually get those numbers in in time? Because we don’t know what the retaliation measures are going to be from some of the European partners … or even from other countries, in that sort of scenario exact numbers might be lacking in some cases,
We will focus like a laser beam on the 83% of global trade that is beyond the United States. Vast opportunities,
We are preparing a potential list for retaliation, and other measures for retaliation, if this is necessary.”
The higher than expected tariff rates … were not factored into many investors’ or companies’ calculations,
The taskforce will help protect ourselves against indirect effects through trade diversion,
Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow‑moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is NO INFLATION, and the long‑time abused USA is bringing in Billions of Dollars a week from the abusing countries on Tariffs that are already in place.”
At current levels, the equity market appears oversold in our view with uncertainty at levels investors find hard to embrace,
Even though we do not believe U.S. Exceptionalism is over, this shock came at a time when valuation was rich, positioning was crowded and leadership was particularly narrow. More so, the lack of the Trump Put and disregard for stocks has further fueled the relentless selling."
While our expectations are for cooler heads to prevail in the trade negotiation process that's likely to follow last week's tariff regime announcements the market 's reactions and percentage of recent declines in some individual stocks (as well as among major equity indices) suggests to us a need to right size expectations in the near term,
We lower our target to 5600 but see a wide range of outcomes from here. A floor of 4000 on the S & P would represent about a 35% decline, slightly worse than the typical recessionary decline of 30%. 7000 would represent a rally of 40% from here, roughly half of the post-Covid rally and roughly two-thirds of the post-GFC rally off the bear market lows,