Russia Nears Deal With New Syria Leaders to Keep Army Bases

The Defence Ministry in Moscow believes it has an informal understanding with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the former al-Qaeda offshoot that led the offensive to oust Assad, that it can stay at the Syrian bases."

Quote from Russian source

It may not be a question of a complete evacuation of the bases right now,

Mardasov said

Russia's certainly doing everything in its power to maintain a presence in Syria while preparing for the possibility that this is the end,

Ben Dubow, a nonresident senior fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Business Insider

I can't speak to whether the 2017 agreements are binding, but at this point, only Russia could enforce them, and there's no sign they have the will or capacity to do so,

Dubow said

In the long run, it is unlikely Russia's use of the facilities can be preserved considering considerable antipathy to Russia among Syria's new authorities after Russia's years of support to the Assad regime,

said Matthew Orr, a Eurasia analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE

There is quite a lot of military equipment that has been hastily withdrawn to the coastal region or is being withdrawn at the moment from various remote regions,

Anton Mardasov, a nonresident scholar with the Middle East Institute's Syria program, told BI

Tobruk would not come close to making up for Tartus and Latakia,

Dubow said

The Turkish Navy doesn't need the Tartus base, and the possibility will depend on security conditions on the ground, which are still unclear many months from now, so it doesn't seem likely in the near term,

RANE's Orr said

It is highly doubtful that HTS will rush to be seen as allying with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin or greenlighting a long-term Russian military presence on Syria's Mediterranean coast,

Ozcelik said

There is visible activity of transport aircraft at Khmeimim but not to the extent that a full-blown evacuation can be spoken about,

said Gustav Gressel, a defense expert who was previously at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

The Russians are cynical and pragmatic enough to be there. It gives [HTS] a chance to diversify from simply being dependent on Ankara,

Galeotti said

I guess that behind the scenes Russia will find a deal to keep the bases in the country,

Gressel told DW

The Russians don't really have any good options,

said Galeotti

Wherever they go — Libya, Mali, Sudan, whatever — they will not be in the same position they were in Syria,

he said

Assad and Syria have become a suitcase without a handle for us. Where are we supposed to fly from Khmeimim? Is it really critical for us to possess the base in Tartus?"

said a Russian government official

This may be Putin's most serious defeat in foreign policy in recent times,

Ruslan Suleymanov, a non-resident research fellow at the Azerbaijan-based Institute for Development and Diplomacy, told The Moscow Times

A lot can happen in Syria,

a Russian diplomat said

Funds for Syria will now be redirected to our operation in Ukraine. Additional squadrons of Russian aviation will now be redeployed to work on Ukrainian targets with peace of mind,

said another Russian official

If something happens to them, it will be another serious blow for Putin, but for the domestic audience. The risks are high, so this is now one of the priority tasks,

said a Russian government official

Abu Mohammad al-Julanileader

We are open to friendship with everyone in the region, including Israel. We have no enemies except the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran. What Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon helped us a lot.”

That group’s leader — presumptive interim leader of Syria Abu Mohammad al-Jolani — has stated