When we have all of these, we know it's making a big social and economic impact,
It may be that the fog lifts quickly, or it may be that complexity increases, and the fog stays with us,
Our research team has taken all rate cuts off the table because they thought that the dynamics of the potential inflationary effect would cause the Fed to hold back,
With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance. We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation,
It's going to take a while to just figure out what is going on,
That's driving price firmness, demand firmness,
Rates are restrictive, but there was not enough sort of inflation progress that we made,
Recent inflation prints, coupled with a strong jobs market, will allow patience from the Federal Reserve who will likely hold policy at its target range of 4.25%-4.50% in March,
The market is taking Powell’s comments in stride,
As we enter 2025, the economy is in a good place,
From where we are now, a number of signs indicate that inflation will continue to move toward our two percent longer-run goal,
One way or another the US consumer will pay for tariffs -- they are on the hook,
It will take time before we can achieve that target on a sustained basis"
With the BSP's policy rates down, banks have no excuse not to adjust both their high lending and low deposit rates,
Based on the numbers alone, it would be risky for the BSP to be too aggressive in its easing policy,
The credit channel could then become a more effective channel of monetary policy in helping achieve economic growth,
Most important, and this is our view, there is less compulsion for the BSP to be more aggressive in easing monetary policy through the policy rates precisely because it has also been pumping more liquidity into the system by its significant reduction in the required reserve ratio,
There is potential inflationary impact of the US government's higher tariff policy against which some countries like Canada and Mexico may retaliate; lower taxes for big business which could inflate domestic liquidity and fuel inflation; and deportation of immigrants which have afforded lower wages for US business especially in services,
While jacking up interest rates during inflationary period effectively restricts credit and liquidity resulting in economic slowdown, reducing interest rates in the downswing does not necessarily boost lending and encourage more economic activities,