With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance. We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation,
Our research team has taken all rate cuts off the table because they thought that the dynamics of the potential inflationary effect would cause the Fed to hold back,
We have to get comfortable with this idea that inflation is sticky at a higher level than what we were used to in the past,
I'd love to see that broadening, but I think this is really a setback to that trend,
The rise in inflation expectations that we've seen with consumers recently, combined with this hotter-than-expected January CPI report, certainly shifts some of the risks over to the inflation outlook,
Our base case was slowing growth, slowing inflation,
Inflation acceleration is more concerning than usual right now,
The prospect of new trade barriers has the potential to further fuel inflationary pressures by increasing costs for businesses and consumers,
Should this month's hotter and broader reading portend a resurgence in inflation in the coming months, the Fed could end up needing to raise interest rates in the second half of 2025,
It’s possible that the economy would evolve in ways that, because of tariffs, or partly because of tariffs, that we would need to do something with our policy rate but we can’t know what that is until we actually know what policies are enacted,
The Fed will see January’s hot inflation print as confirmation that price pressures continue to bubble beneath the economy’s surface,
Rome wasn’t built in a day,
Interest Rates should be lowered, something which would go hand in hand with upcoming Tariffs!!! Lets Rock and Roll, America!!!
That's driving price firmness, demand firmness,
Rates are restrictive, but there was not enough sort of inflation progress that we made,
Recent inflation prints, coupled with a strong jobs market, will allow patience from the Federal Reserve who will likely hold policy at its target range of 4.25%-4.50% in March,
The market is taking Powell’s comments in stride,
As we enter 2025, the economy is in a good place,
From where we are now, a number of signs indicate that inflation will continue to move toward our two percent longer-run goal,
One way or another the US consumer will pay for tariffs -- they are on the hook,