Risk aversion dominates the currency market,
The collapse of US equities after President Donald Trump announced his new tariffs will be remembered in the history books, as it prompted the fourth-largest two-day drop in the S&P 500 since its inception in 1957,
We have the necessary tools to respond,
Ultimately, our take is market uncertainly and volatility are likely to persist for some time,
Companies like BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Thales, Saab, and Leonardo have already established — and in many cases expanded — their industrial footprint in the U.S., in anticipation of a potential Trump re-election. This local presence not only supports their access to U.S. defense contracts but also provides a hedge against tariffs,
What we've seen in Europe right now is that we've seen just this change in mindset, and that we now have visibility. We now have five to 10 years runway of growth as we move toward 3% of GDP,
While it's still early to assess the full impact of the new tariffs on the defense sector, it's worth noting that Europe remains a net importer of U.S. military defense equipment,
The next big datapoint is going to be Q1 results, where I think we will get a lot of commentary from companies about capabilities and capability reviews,
What you're seeing today is just the de-grossing impact of a sector that has been very, very loved from clients, particularly over the last three to six months."
The question is will there be enough time for them to actually get those numbers in in time? Because we don't know what the retaliation measures are going to be from some of the European partners ... or even from other countries, in that sort of scenario exact numbers might be lacking in some cases,
The higher than expected tariff rates ... were not factored into many investors' or companies' calculations,
For these companies, our initial, and rough, math would suggest material double-digit negative impacts at EBIT level,
Vietnam's growing role in footwear manufacturing, and given its substantial contribution to U.S. footwear imports, means the tariffs present a material headwind to sector profitability as the companies may not be able to fully offset them,
The comments one company makes could have ramifications on others,
Companies will ... probably be honest and say look, the world is a very uncertain place, they may do some kind of scenario analysis and they may lay that out for investors,
So let's be prepared for surprises like a stock that reports poorly but then rises,
We think global equities are unlikely to go back to recent highs anytime soon, as much damage has been done,
I don't want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something."