Negative economic impact on US already surfacing as US reciprocal tariffs approach: reports

This month’s decline reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations; Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations since February for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation,

it added in a research note

I couldn’t care less. I hope they raise their prices because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars,

Trump said over the weekend

We are moving in the wrong direction and the concern is that tariffs threaten higher prices, which mean the inflation prints are going to remain hot. This will constrain the Fed's ability to deliver further interest rate cuts,

James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, was quoted saying in the Reuters report

There is no other conclusion possible other than the Trump 2.0 economic policies are frightening consumers as much as they do corporations,

Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, wrote in a note on Friday

We now see a 12-month recession probability of 35 percent. The upgrade from our previous 20 percent estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies."

Goldman Sachs said in a report released on Sunday local time

The economy is going to stall out if not something worse if Washington policymakers are not careful,

CNN reported

It is premature to expect much fallout from the trade war and DOGE cuts in the jobs data, suggesting a monthly payroll job gain of close to 150,000,

Zandi said

Longer-term, between DOGE cuts, some of which are fodder for ongoing legal battles adding to uncertainty, the rising tide of tariffs (taxes paid on imports by U.S. companies, some costs passed on to consumers), and a broader trade war, risks to the economy are rising."

Mark Hamrick, Bankrate Senior Economic Analyst, said in a statement shared with Newsweek

Recent employment figures don't point to a recession upcoming, but as the Trump administration continues to fight a trade war, we may see softer employment figures coming up as businesses find that their international sales slow down and the cost of imported inputs increase."

Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner previously told Newsweek

If tariffs rise on April 2 as pledged, inflation will accelerate in coming months."

Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank, said in a statement shared with Newsweek

I'm raising my odds that a recession will begin sometime this year to 40 percent, up from 15 percent at the start of the year."

In a post published on social media platform X on Sunday, Zandi wrote

We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs and we're going to become so rich, you're not going to know where to spend the money."

Trump told reporters last month

This includes the possibility of a recession in the U.S. in the coming 12 months. Beginning Thursday, April 3, Bankrate will publish new results of our quarter economist survey (The Bankrate Economic Indicator), including a look at recession risks and prospects for the job market over the coming year."

He added

While sentiment has been a poor predictor over activity over the last few years, we are less dismissive of the recent decline because economic fundamentals are not as strong as in prior years,

Goldman Sachs said

Higher tariffs are likely to boost consumer crisis,

Goldman Sachs economists wrote, noting

You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens,

Trump said Sunday

We have pulled the lone 2026 cut in our Fed forecast forward into 2025 and now expect three consecutive cuts this year in July, September, and November, which would leave our terminal rate forecast unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%,

the Goldman economists said, referring to the fed funds rate, down from 4.25% to 4.50% today