We came off a very high inflation and we haven’t fully returned to 2 percent on a sustainable basis,
As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves,
Despite the downward trend (of the CPI), a slowdown is not expected in March. The start of the school year and the reactivation of key sectors could generate some seasonal pressure on prices,
The government's goal of breaking the 2% barrier has not been fully realized, and in February, inflation may have even accelerated,
Efforts to slow inflation included lowering the crawling peg to 1%, intervening in the exchange rate gap, and the discretionary updating of tariffs – which remained considerably below inflation – all aimed at moderating the indicator, but with limited success,
However, in the second half of the month, increases exceeded expectations, largely driven by higher prices in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, particularly meat,
Today’s CPI report shows inflation is declining and the economy is moving in the right direction under President Trump. Core consumer prices, which is the best measure of inflation, dropped to its lowest level in FOUR years,
As he successfully did in his first term, President Trump is driving down costs through massive deregulation and energy dominance,
The index for food also increased in February, rising 0.2% as the index for food away from home increased 0.4%. The food at home index was unchanged over the month,
It doesn’t shift much for the Fed as a lot has happened since this data was collected. But we do expect energy prices to continue coming down as the year evolves,
The economy’s fine. It doesn’t need us to do anything, really. And so we can wait, and we should wait,
There's no real progress toward that 2% goal,
What really does matter is what is happening with long-term inflation expectations,
We do expect the correction in vegetable prices to start reversing, possibly as early as March, with risks from heatwaves and weather-related disruptions to crops,
This will bring the repo rate to 5.50% by end-2025, which we identify as being close to the neutral rate,
We anticipate [February data] will show the first signs of President Trump’s 10% China tariff hike on core goods, alongside resilient non-shelter services inflation that may stay boosted by residual seasonality effects,
Inflation remains a major problem, ranked second behind the top problem, labor quality,
We have massive cross-currents,
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is expected to moderate to 2.0 per cent (y/y) in Feb'25, low from 2.3 per cent in the previous month, due to cooling in oil prices and a seasonal drop in food prices."
During the month of February 2025, NSO collected prices from 100 percent villages and 98.6 percent urban markets while the market-wise prices reported therein were 89.8 percent for rural and 92.6 percent for urban,