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The problem for the Kremlin, of course, is whether the threat of nuclear retaliation to Ukraine striking targets inside Russia with Western conventional weapons is a credible threat,
said Kristensen
Russia's willingness to climb the nuclear ladder to a great extent comes down to the thinking and the predilections of one man, Vladimir Putin,
said EpiskoposThe Russian perception that this is a step by the Biden administration to tie Trump's hands when he gets into office,
said Episkopos from the Quincy InstituteI'm somewhat astounded about the details and very broad scenarios described in the document,
said Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).It goes far beyond what we have seen in documents from other nuclear-armed states,
he told NewsweekThe West would have to believe that Putin would actually order the use of nuclear weapons in retaliation for a very limited conventional attack that does not in any way threaten Russia's survival or its ability to operate its nuclear forces,
he saidSince there’s little Russia can do in response in practical terms, it turns to threatening language on paper to undermine the resolve of the outgoing Biden administration. That’s understandable — direct and indirect nuclear threats have been so effective in the past in deterring Biden from backing Ukraine fully, that it would be disappointing for Moscow if this latest move didn’t make a difference,
Giles told NBC News
Russia’s move will tie in with the campaign by its backers in the West to paint the easing of restrictions on ATACMS strikes into Russia as a dangerous escalation,
said Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow with the London-based think-tank Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program.jpg)
He has rattled his nuclear saber quite a bit and this is dangerous behavior,
Austin said of Putin.jpg)
Russia’s new nuclear doctrine means NATO missiles fired against our country could be deemed an attack by the bloc on Russia,
former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev saidIt would be a serious gamble,
Podvig, a senior researcher at the U.N. Institute for Disarmament Research, said in an emailThe doctrinal changes have indeed been in the works for some time. It does appear that the timing of the decree was chosen deliberately, to send a (strong) signal of disapproval of the decision to give the authorization,
said Pavel Podvig, an expert on Russia's nuclear forces
Our enemies are forced to admit that the determination of the Russian President to firmly defend the fundamental interests of the country by all available means narrows the room for maneuver for Washington and Brussels. Attempts by individual NATO allies to participate in providing for possible long-range strikes with Western weapons deep into Russian territory will not go unpunished,
Putin's spy chief Sergei Naryshkin said in an interview with the magazine National DefenseI don’t see a change in their strategic force posture and so we’ll continue to remain vigilant in this regard,
he said on the 1,000th day since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of its neighborRussia could retaliate with WMD against Kiev and key NATO facilities, wherever they’re located. That means World War III,
added Medvedev, who is now the deputy chair of Russia’s Security CouncilRussia has been using a number of delivery systems of missiles that [can] also come with a nuclear warhead. So these are dual capable systems. For example, Iskander M short range ballistic missiles. Those have been used extensively in this war by Russia. So when we have an incoming from Russia to Ukraine and we see that it's an Iskander missile, we don't know if it's nuclear tipped or conventionally tipped,
Budjeryn said
He keeps playing and pretending like he's going to do something,
Ustinova saidThe previous version of the Russian doctrine adopted in 2020 allowed also a nuclear response to a large-scale conventional attack, but only in extreme circumstances where the very survival of the state was at stake,
Budjeryn notedThis is the latest instance of a long string of nuclear rhetoric and signaling that has been coming out of Moscow since the beginning of this full scale invasion,
Mariana Budjeryn, Senior Research Associate at Harvard's Belfer Center, told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle when the change to Russia's nuclear doctrine was first proposed last monthThey've been signalling that they intend to update [the Russian nuclear doctrine] over the last several weeks. It's the same irresponsible rhetoric that we've seen before and that we've seen frankly for the past two years. So, it's something that we're going to continue to monitor. But we don't have any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon within Ukraine. And we don't see any changes that need to be made to our own nuclear posture as well."
Quote from Singh