President Trump walked into the Rose Garden and detonated the most aggressive trade shock the market's seen in decades. This isn't a jab, it's a full-on haymaker,
Regardless of what the deal is, it is highly likely that the US will keep part of the tariffs for everyone,
In our view, the scale and speed of the new Trump administration’s additional tariffs and other measures against China are much worse than markets had expected, though these events unfolding are consistent with our more cautious views,
The tariff announcement doesn’t eliminate uncertainty, but it hopefully puts a boundary around how bad the economic consequences will be,
If that were the case, markets would be falling a lot more dramatically, as this kind of tariff regime would effectively guarantee a recession. The long-run tariff policy remains uncertain – how will other countries react? Will the US escalate? Will it pull back?”
The hike in tariffs was more aggressive than expected,
These tariff figures are worse than expected – certainly viewed from Asia, where everyone got hit. An export-dependent region is going to really struggle with sudden, huge price increases,
I would continue to expect most companies, if not the vast majority of them, to say in this upcoming earnings report that they do not have visibility, therefore they're not going to forecast the impact of tariffs,
What I think is most meddlesome at the moment, though, is simply the unknown element, the rapidity with which each incremental wave of tariff has been announced,
With more clarity on tariffs, C-suites will need to adjust guidance through the 1Q reporting period,
CEOs will latch onto an opportunity to lower expectations even if it's painful - they can just say it's the stupid tariffs, or headwinds, or currency conversion,
Managing risk from tariffs is likely to be an ongoing, dynamic process for the duration of the second Trump administration as tariff threats continue to linger,