Short term, [crypto] markets are in a pretty fragile state, and part of that has to do with the macro environment,
Macro factors will continue to be the biggest driver of digital asset price performance over the short-term,
There will be an opportunity for bitcoin to shine if we see any intensified stress in global markets,
The market is disappointed with that,
The initial excitement surrounding the Trump administration’s perceived pro-crypto stance appears to be in a phase of recalibration,
That's increasing all this market uncertainty, which is absolutely not helping bitcoin at all. Until we get (clarity on a bitcoin reserve), I can't see prices recovering significantly,
It seems that the market has become volatile in reaction to the Bybit incident,
Given the macro environment, it’s not surprising to see we are where we are,
As the industry becomes more institutionalized, it should be safer,
It's clear that tides are shifting, not just within global equity markets but within the likes of commodities and crypto as well,
We could be in for a return to the mid to low $70,000 range,
We reiterate our Buy rating on NVDA as the company remains in a dominant position of leading the AI market towards compute-intensive inference, agentic applications, and physical AI/robotics,
Demand for Blackwell is very strong and will continue to outstrip supply for several quarters. We believe the team did a good job on addressing AI model innovations like DeepSeek and they continue to believe that there are multiple phases/ and innovations in models that will drive overall compute complexity higher and sustain the demand for more and higher performance compute infrastructure,
From a top line perspective numbers came in a bit lighter than what we thought for April, but this was always the biggest quarter of risk in our eyes,
We continue to view NVDA as a top pick post a JanQ 5% EPS beat and AprQ 1% outlook raise with bullish comments on Blackwell ramp and demand outlook. Importantly, Blackwell revs of $11bn in the JanQ were well above expectations, and mgmt. made the case for excellent visibility in CY25. Lower GMs were the fly in the ointment, but the company expects them to bounce back to mid-70% range by EoY,
Blackwell sales of $11B exceeded expectations (Citi $10B) as ramp seems to be on track now after hiccups last year and Nvidia expects strong growth in 2025. Inference demand is accelerating post reasoning models like DeepSeek as long reasoning requires 100x more compute per task vs one shot inference. Gross margin outlook was 170/80 bps below Citi/Street on initial Blackwell mix but expected to exit mid 70's late FY,
It's telling that Nvidia's latest set of results beat earnings expectations for the ninth quarter in a row and failed to win over the market,
The prospect of being able run AI services more cheaply, together with growing uncertainties around the economic outlook, mean companies will be paying more attention to tech-related spending,
The muted response is a balance of strong revenue and lower gross margins,
We're going to be signing an agreement which will be a very big agreement, that'll be on rare earth and other things."